Research |
Monitoring Changes in Human Behaviors during the COVID-19 Pandemic
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The 50-state COVID-19 project was launched in March 2020 by a multi-university group of researchers with expertise in computational social science, network science, public opinion polling, epidemiology, public health, communication, and political science. We aim to help practitioners and governments to make informed decisions and allocate resources more effectively. Our research seeks to identify links between social behaviors and virus transmission, as well as and the impact of messaging and regulation on individual and community outcomes during this crisis. We are sharing our data and insights directly with collaborators and decision-makers, as well as making our findings public online.
Our team is an active collaborator of this initiative and Prof. Santillana is one of the Principal Investigators in the COVID-states project. |
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Related publications
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Prevalence of firearm ownership among individuals with major depressive symptoms
Roy H Perlis, Matthew D Simonson, Jon Green, Jennifer Lin, Alauna Safarpour, Kristin Lunz Trujillo, Alexi Quintana, Hanyu Chwe, John Della Volpe, Katherine Ognyanova, Mauricio Santillana, James Druckman, David Lazer, Matthew A Baum JAMA network open 5 (3), e223245-e22324512022 Abstract
Importance Both major depression and firearm ownership are associated with an increased risk for death by suicide in the United States, but the extent of overlap among these major risk factors is not well characterized. Objective To assess the prevalence of current and planned firearm ownership among individuals with depression. Design, Setting, and Participants Cross-sectional survey study using data pooled from 2 waves of a 50-state nonprobability internet survey conducted between May and July 7, 2021. Internet survey respondents were 18 years of age or older and were sampled from all 50 US states and the District of Columbia. Main Outcomes and Measures Self-reported firearm ownership; depressive symptoms as measured by the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire. Results Of 24 770 survey respondents (64.6% women and 35.4% men; 5.0% Asian, 10.8% Black, 7.5% Hispanic, and 74.0% White; mean [SD] age 45.8 [17.5]), 6929 (28.0%) reported moderate or greater depressive symptoms; this group had mean (SD) age of 38.18 (15.19) years, 4587 were female (66.2%), and 406 were Asian (5.9%), 725 were Black (10.5%), 652 were Hispanic (6.8%), and 4902 were White (70.7%). Of those with depression, 31.3% reported firearm ownership (n = 2167), of whom 35.9% (n = 777) reported purchasing a firearm within the past year. In regression models, the presence of moderate or greater depressive symptoms was not significantly associated with firearm ownership (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% CI, 0.98-1.17) but was associated with greater likelihood of a first-time firearm purchase during the COVID-19 pandemic (adjusted OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.56-2.02) and greater likelihood of considering a future firearm purchase (adjusted OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.23-1.90). Conclusions and Relevance In this study, current and planned firearm ownership was common among individuals with major depressive symptoms, suggesting a public health opportunity to address this conjunction of suicide risk factors. |
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Association of major depressive symptoms with endorsement of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation among US adults
Roy H Perlis, Katherine Ognyanova, Mauricio Santillana, Jennifer Lin, James Druckman, David Lazer, Jon Green, Matthew Simonson, Matthew A Baum, John Della Volpe JAMA network open 5 (1), e2145697-e214569742022 Abstract
Importance Misinformation about COVID-19 vaccination may contribute substantially to vaccine hesitancy and resistance. Objective To determine if depressive symptoms are associated with greater likelihood of believing vaccine-related misinformation. Design, Setting, and Participants This survey study analyzed responses from 2 waves of a 50-state nonprobability internet survey conducted between May and July 2021, in which depressive symptoms were measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire 9-item (PHQ-9). Survey respondents were aged 18 and older. Population-reweighted multiple logistic regression was used to examine the association between moderate or greater depressive symptoms and endorsement of at least 1 item of vaccine misinformation, adjusted for sociodemographic features. The association between depressive symptoms in May and June, and new support for misinformation in the following wave was also examined. Exposures Depressive symptoms. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcome was endorsing any of 4 common vaccine-related statements of misinformation. Results Among 15 464 survey respondents (9834 [63.6%] women and 5630 [36.4%] men; 722 Asian respondents [4.7%], 1494 Black respondents [9.7%], 1015 Hispanic respondents [6.6%], and 11 863 White respondents [76.7%]; mean [SD] age, 47.9 [17.5] years), 4164 respondents (26.9%) identified moderate or greater depressive symptoms on the PHQ-9, and 2964 respondents (19.2%) endorsed at least 1 vaccine-related statement of misinformation. Presence of depression was associated with increased likelihood of endorsing misinformation (crude odds ratio [OR], 2.33; 95% CI, 2.09-2.61; adjusted OR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.91-2.43). Respondents endorsing at least 1 misinformation item were significantly less likely to be vaccinated (crude OR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.36-0.45; adjusted OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.40-0.51) and more likely to report vaccine resistance (crude OR, 2.54; 95% CI, 2.21-2.91; adjusted OR, 2.68; 95% CI, 2.89-3.13). Among 2809 respondents who answered a subsequent survey in July, presence of depression in the first survey was associated with greater likelihood of endorsing more misinformation compared with the prior survey (crude OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.42-2.75; adjusted OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.14-2.33). Conclusions and Relevance This survey study found that individuals with moderate or greater depressive symptoms were more likely to endorse vaccine-related misinformation, cross-sectionally and at a subsequent survey wave. While this study design cannot address causation, the association between depression and spread and impact of misinformation merits further investigation. |
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Using general messages to persuade on a politicized scientific issue
Jon Green, James N Druckman, Matthew A Baum, David Lazer, Katherine Ognyanova, Matthew Simonson, Jennifer Lin, Mauricio Santillana, Roy H Perlis British Journal of Political Science Abstract
Politics and science have become increasingly intertwined. Salient scientific issues such as climate change, evolution, and stem cell research become politicized, pitting partisans against one another. This creates a challenge of how to effectively communicate on such issues. Recent work emphasizes the need for tailored messages to specific groups. Here, we focus on whether generalized messages also can matter. We do so in the context of a highly polarized issue – extreme COVID-19 vaccine resistance. The results show that science-based, moral frame, and social norm messages move behavioral intentions, and do so by the same amount across the population (i.e., homogenous effects). Counter to common portrayals, the politicization of science does not preclude using broad messages that resonate with the entire population. |
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Association between social media use and self-reported symptoms of depression in US adults
Roy H Perlis, Jon Green, Matthew Simonson, Katherine Ognyanova, Mauricio Santillana, Jennifer Lin, Alexi Quintana, Hanyu Chwe, James Druckman, David Lazer, Matthew A Baum, John Della VolpeJAMA network open 4 (11), e2136113-e213611312021 Abstract
Importance Some studies suggest that social media use is associated with risk for depression, particularly among children and young adults. Objective To characterize the association between self-reported use of individual social media platforms and worsening of depressive symptoms among adults. Design, Setting, and Participants This survey study included data from 13 waves of a nonprobability internet survey conducted approximately monthly between May 2020 and May 2021 among individuals aged 18 years and older in the US. Data were analyzed in July and August 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures Logistic regression was applied without reweighting, with a 5 point or greater increase in 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) score as outcome and participant sociodemographic features, baseline PHQ-9, and use of each social media platform as independent variables. Results In total, 5395 of 8045 individuals (67.1%) with a PHQ-9 score below 5 on initial survey completed a second PHQ-9. These respondents had a mean (SD) age of 55.8 (15.2) years; 3546 respondents (65.7%) identified as female; 329 respondents (6.1%) were Asian, 570 (10.6%) Black, 256 (4.7%) Hispanic, 4118 (76.3%) White, and 122 (2.3%) American Indian or Alaska Native, Pacific Islander or Native Hawaiian, or other. Among eligible respondents, 482 (8.9%) reported 5 points or greater worsening of PHQ-9 score at second survey. In fully adjusted models for increase in symptoms, the largest adjusted odds ratio (aOR) associated with social media use was observed for Snapchat (aOR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.19-1.96), Facebook (aOR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.10-1.81), and TikTok (aOR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.03-1.87). Conclusions and Relevance Among survey respondents who did not report depressive symptoms initially, social media use was associated with greater likelihood of subsequent increase in depressive symptoms after adjustment for sociodemographic features and news sources. These data cannot elucidate the nature of this association, but suggest the need for further study to understand how social media use may factor into depression among adults. |
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Gender‐specificity of resilience in major depressive disorder
Roy H Perlis, Katherine Ognyanova, Alexi Quintana, Jon Green, Mauricio Santillana, Jennifer Lin, James Druckman, David Lazer, Matthew D Simonson, Matthew A Baum, Hanyu Chwe. Depression and anxiety 38 (10), 1026-103322021 Abstract
IntroductionThe major stressors associated with the COVID-19 pandemic provide an opportunity to understand the extent to which protective factors against depression may exhibit gender-specificity. MethodThis study examined responses from multiple waves of a 50 states non-probability internet survey conducted between May 2020 and January 2021. Participants completed the PHQ-9 as a measure of depression, as well as items characterizing social supports. We used logistic regression models with population reweighting to examine association between absence of even mild depressive symptoms and sociodemographic features and social supports, with interaction terms and stratification used to investigate sex-specificity. ResultsAmong 73,917 survey respondents, 31,199 (42.2%) reported absence of mild or greater depression—11,011/23,682 males (46.5%) and 20,188/50,235 (40.2%) females. In a regression model, features associated with greater likelihood of depression-resistance included at least weekly attendance of religious services (odds ratio [OR]: 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04–1.16) and greater trust in others (OR: 1.04 for a 2-unit increase, 95% CI: 1.02–1.06), along with level of social support measured as number of social ties available who could provide care (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02–1.07), talk to them (OR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.07–1.12), and help with employment (OR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04–1.08). The first two features showed significant interaction with gender (p < .0001), with markedly greater protective effects among women. ConclusionAspects of social support are associated with diminished risk of major depressive symptoms, with greater effects of religious service attendance and trust in others observed among women than men. |
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The role of race, religion, and partisanship in misinformation about COVID-19
Druckman J, Ognyanova K, Baum M, Lazer D, Perlis R, Volpe JD, Santillana M, Chwe H, Quintana A, Simonson M. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations. 2021;24 (4) :638–657. Abstract
Concerns about misperceptions among the public are rampant. Yet, little work explores the correlates of misperceptions in varying contexts – that is, how do factors such as group affiliations, media exposure, and lived experiences correlate with the number of misperceptions people hold? We address these questions by investigating misperceptions about COVID-19, focusing on the role of racial/ethnic, religious, and partisan groups. Using a large survey, we find the number of correct beliefs held by individuals far dwarfs the number of misperceptions. When it comes to misperceptions, we find that minorities, those with high levels of religiosity, and those with strong partisan identities – across parties – hold a substantially greater number of misperceptions than those with contrasting group affiliations. Moreover, we show other variables (e.g., social media usage, number of COVID-19 cases in one’s county) do not have such strong relationships with misperceptions, and the group-level results do not reflect acquiescence to believing any information regardless of its truth value. Our results accentuate the importance of studying group-level misperceptions on other scientific and political issues and developing targeted interventions for these groups. |
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Factors associated with self-reported symptoms of depression among adults with and without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis
Perlis R, Santillana M, Ognyanova K, Green J, Druckman J, Lazer D, Baum M. JAMA Network Open. 2021;4 (6). Abstract
Rates of major depressive symptoms are elevated after acute infection with SARS-CoV-2.1-3 A key question is whether such symptoms represent a general consequence of stress associated with acute illness or whether they reflect more specific sequelae associated with COVID-19 pathophysiology itself. To examine this possibility, in this survey study, we compared features of major depression in individuals with or without prior COVID-19 illness. |
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Comparison of post-COVID depression and major depressive disorder
Roy H Perlis, Mauricio Santillana, Katherine Ognyanova, Jon Green, James Druckman, David Lazer, Matthew A Baum. MedRxiv62021 Abstract
Background:During the COVID-19 pandemic rates of depressive symptoms are markedly elevated, particularly among survivors of infection. Understanding whether such symptoms are distinct among those with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, or simply a nonspecific reflection of elevated stress, could help target interventions. Method:We analyzed data from multiple waves of a 50-state survey that included questions about COVID-19 infection as well as the Patient Health Questionnaire examining depressive and anxious symptoms. We utilized multiple logistic regression to examine whether sociodemographic features associated with depression liability differed for those with or without prior COVID-19, and then whether depressive symptoms differed among those with or without prior COVID-19. Results:Among 91,791 respondents, in regression models, age, gender, race, education, and income all exhibited an interaction with prior COVID-19 in risk for moderate or greater depressive symptoms (p<0.0001 in all cases), indicating differential risk in the two subgroups. Among those with such symptoms, levels of motoric symptoms and suicidality were significantly greater among those with prior COVID-19 illness. Depression risk increased with greater interval following acute infection. |
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Association of Acute Symptoms of COVID-19 and Symptoms of Depression in Adults
Perlis RH, Ognyanova K, Santillana M, Baum MA, Lazer D, Druckman J, Volpe JD. JAMA Network Open. 2021;4 (3) :e213223. Abstract
After acute infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a subset of individuals experience persistent symptoms involving mood, sleep, anxiety, and fatigue,1 which may contribute to markedly elevated rates of major depressive disorder observed in recent epidemiologic studies.2 In this study, we investigated whether acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms are associated with the probability of subsequent depressive symptoms. |
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Persistence of symptoms up to 10 months following acute COVID-19 illness
Roy H Perlis, Jon Green, Mauricio Santillana, David Lazer, Katherine Ognyanova, Matthew Simonson, Matthew A Baum, Alexi Quintana, Hanyu Chwe, James Druckman, John Della Volpe, Jennifer Lin. MedRxiv Abstract
Importance: COVID-19 symptoms are increasingly recognized to persist among a subset of individual following acute infection, but features associated with this persistence are not well-understood. Objective: We aimed to identify individual features that predicted persistence of symptoms over at least 2 months at the time of survey completion. Design: Non-probability internet survey. Participants were asked to identify features of acute illness as well as persistence of symptoms at time of study completion. We used logistic regression models to examine association between sociodemographic and clinical features and persistence of symptoms at or beyond 2 months. |
